Author Unknown |
What is scenario planning? According to one encyclopedia, "Unlike forecasting which extrapolates past and present trends to predict the future, scenario planning is an interactive process for exploring alternative, plausible futures". This explanation is unclear and possibly obscurantist. If scenario planning does not predict using knowledge of the past and present, it can only be one other thing:
a calculating of what actions will produce a desired future. That agrees with the military roots of scenario planning. And, while this document was produced by people who are hellbent on creating the future world they want, this document is mostly rhetoric and propaganda. It's four scenarios give
readers little choice about what is the best way forward--Lock Step is the winner, as it promises the best future. Of course, far more desirable alternatives have been ignored.
Read the document here with notes in the document by the author unknown.
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